Before the games start we want to look at each team’s chances to make the big game. We went to Football Outsiders and found the following odds:
It’s interesting to note that the Vikings have a better chance to make the Super Bowl but the Rams have a better chance of winning it.
The playoff field is set. The seeding is as follows:
1 – Philadelphia Eagles
2 – Minnesota Vikings
3 – LA Rams
4 – New Orleans Saints
5 – Carolina Panthers
6 – Atlanta Falcons
First, shout out to the NFC South – three teams in the playoffs is quite an accomplishment.
Now, who will the Vikings play in the Divisional Game here in a week and a half?
First, the NFL is unique in their playoffs in that the games flex to accommodate the higher seeds. This means that the Eagles, as the higher seed over the Vikings, will play the lowest REMAINING seed while the Vikings will draw the HIGHEST remaining seed. This means that Minnesota cannot play the Falcons and the Eagles cannot play the Rams in that Divisional round.
The first game we’ll look at is the Panthers-Saints. I’m gonna use two models. One is the spread as reported by CBSSports.com and the other is the ELO Rating used by FiveThirtyEight.com.
Using the ELO ratings the Saints have a 65% chance of beating the Panthers. The Saints are picked by 6.5 on the spread. And teams with such odds have a 72.4% of winning according to BettingTalk.
Now switching to the Rams v Falcons game there is a conflict. The spread has the same 6.5 favor for the Rams giving them a 72.4% chance of winning. However, the ELO ratings have the Falcons willing, but barely, at 51%. So we have to run the data twice.
Using the spread we have the following break down:
Rams win AND Saints win = 52.4%
Rams win AND Panthers win = 20%
Falcons win AND Saints win = 20%
Falcons win AND Panthers win = 7.6%
The Vikings have a 72.4% chance of playing the Rams, a 20% chance of playing the Saints and a 7.6% chance of playing the Panthers.
Now using ELO:
Rams win AND Saints win = 31.9%
Rams win AND Panthers win = 17.1%
Falcons win AND Saints win = 33.2%
Falcons win AND Panthers win = 17.8
The Vikings have a 49% chance of playing the Rams, a 33.2% chance of playing the Saints and a 17.8% chance of playing the Panthers.
If you’re a Viking’s fan, the numbers clearly favor a Minnesota LA game, though much less so sing the ELO numbers. The most interesting scenario is the potential Panthers matchup. A scenario more than twice as likely using ELO; one that Minnesota fans would love to see.
It is Week 17 in the NFL. All teams are playing their last games and the season will end with the playoffs right around the corner.
While the Vikings have locked up a playoff game, and a guaranteed first round home game, we have not clinched the second seed which would bring with it a first round bye.
TR asked me what had to happen for us to grab that 2 seed. So, here it is.
The Vikings can clinch the Two simply with a Minnesota win – we win, we’re in.
If Minnesota loses then we need to have Carolina lose OR the Saints to win.
In other words, for us to miss out on the #2 seed, we need to lose, the Saints need to lose and the Panthers need to win.
TR asked me what the chances were that we get that #2 seed – so we ran the data:
Going over to 538’s Week 17 Predictions where they have each games listed by the 538 ELO point spread.
The three games we’re interested in are booked in the following manner:
Minnesota -12 over Chicago – 85%
New Orleans -7 over Tampa Bay – 73%
Atlanta -3 over Carolina – 61%
Knowing this, combined with the work we did last post in determining free throw shooting, we simply multiply through the combination that knocks Minnesota out. That is a Minnesota loss, a Saints loss and an Atlanta loss:
.15*.27*.39 = .015795 or .016 or 1.6%.
Minnesota has a 98.4% chance of grabbing the #2 seed this week.