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Is it Better To Hit a 3-Pt Shot or a 2-Pt Shot?

Is it Better To Hit a 3-Pt Shot or a 2-Pt Shot?

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Long time between posts – lots of life going on, sorry man.  TR and I will do better next time out.

So, as mentioned earlier in the life of WRTD, TR and I listen to Mackey and Judd.  A ton!  But, one, we do it via podcast and two, we don’t do it 4-hours a day, so we are very often behind.  Anxious to catch up and get to the Wolves and Wild exits plus speculate on the draft, we skipped a few days and sure enough, Wolves vent line/ranting to our hearts content.  Good stuff.

Mixed in all the Wolves talk in between Wiggins and Thibodeau, Butler and KAT, is a favorite theme of Mackey’s.  Namely, 3pt shooting.  More specifically, the volume of the 3-pointer during the course of a game and the evolution of the NBA game towards 3’s.

Interesting stuff, but is it true?  Let’s check.

So, if I’m correct, the question is this:  “Is it better to take more 3-point shots or more 2-point shots in the course of an NBA game?”

If I’m reading Mackey’s position it’s this, “The NBA has evolved into a more efficient scoring game.  More 3-point shots results in a 3-point scoring differential that is really hard to overcome.  In fact, in order to overcome that deficit, you have to be really good at everything else; rebounding, turnovers and defense.”

Is Mackey right?

I went to www.nba.com for the stats, and while they’re awesome, they’re hard to download.  So I went to www.basketball-reference.com instead.  A great site.  There I got the data for the 2018 season and specifically focused on the ‘per 100 possession’ stats; opponents and then team.  Because we recently lost to the Rockets, and because they are an extreme example of the new trend, I used them.

As it turns out, not only are the Rockets an extreme example, they are THE extreme example.  Of the 30 teams in the NBA, the Rockets took the most 3-point shots of any team; 43.2 per 100 possessions.  The next closest were the Warriors at 35.8.  The Timberwolves, by the way, were dead last at 23.3.  When loooking at 2-point shots per 100, the Rockets came in at 42.8.  The Puppies?  65.9.

So, breaking it down, it looks like this:

So, much closer than I thought.  And, we forgot one thing; all shots are not created equal.  While hitting beyond the line gets you three points, it’s harder to hit that shot.  A 2-point shot has a different percentage than a 3-point shot.  Let’s fix that.

Wow.  Even closer.

There’s no question that Houston takes more 3-point attempts than the Timberwolves.  But we compensate that by taking way more shots with a higher chance of hitting.  In the end, what we see is that the Rockets take more low percentage, albeit higher scoring, shots than the Wolves but we take more shots that have a better shot of scoring.

So why does Houston win so many games?

Maybe they play better defense.  Rebound better or take more free throws?  Great questions.

Who Will the Vikings Play in the Playoffs

Who Will the Vikings Play in the Playoffs

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The playoff field is set.  The seeding is as follows:

1 – Philadelphia Eagles
2 – Minnesota Vikings
3 – LA Rams
4 – New Orleans Saints
5 – Carolina Panthers
6 – Atlanta Falcons

First, shout out to the NFC South – three teams in the playoffs is quite an accomplishment.

Now, who will the Vikings play in the Divisional Game here in a week and a half?

First, the NFL is unique in their playoffs in that the games flex to accommodate the higher seeds.  This means that the Eagles, as the higher seed over the Vikings, will play the lowest REMAINING seed while the Vikings will draw the HIGHEST remaining seed.  This means that Minnesota cannot play the Falcons and the Eagles cannot play the Rams in that Divisional round.

The first game we’ll look at is the Panthers-Saints.  I’m gonna use two models.  One is the spread as reported by CBSSports.com and the other is the ELO Rating used by FiveThirtyEight.com.

Using the ELO ratings the Saints have a 65% chance of beating the Panthers.  The Saints are picked by 6.5 on the spread.  And teams with such odds have a 72.4% of winning according to BettingTalk.

Now switching to the Rams v Falcons game there is a conflict.  The spread has the same 6.5 favor for the Rams giving them a 72.4% chance of winning.  However, the ELO ratings have the Falcons willing, but barely, at 51%.  So we have to run the data twice.

Using the spread we have the following break down:

Rams win AND Saints win = 52.4%
Rams win AND Panthers win = 20%
Falcons win AND Saints win = 20%
Falcons win AND Panthers win = 7.6%

The Vikings have a 72.4% chance of playing the Rams, a 20% chance of playing the Saints and a 7.6% chance of playing the Panthers.

Now using ELO:

Rams win AND Saints win = 31.9%
Rams win AND Panthers win = 17.1%
Falcons win AND Saints win = 33.2%
Falcons win AND Panthers win = 17.8

The Vikings have a 49% chance of playing the Rams, a 33.2% chance of playing the Saints and a 17.8% chance of playing the Panthers.

If you’re a Viking’s fan, the numbers clearly favor a Minnesota LA game, though much less so sing the ELO numbers.  The most interesting scenario is the potential Panthers matchup.  A scenario more than twice as likely using ELO; one that Minnesota fans would love to see.

Minnesota Vikings – 2017 Playoff Seed

Minnesota Vikings – 2017 Playoff Seed

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It is Week 17 in the NFL.  All teams are playing their last games and the season will end with the playoffs right around the corner.

While the Vikings have locked up a playoff game, and a guaranteed first round home game, we have not clinched the second seed which would bring with it a first round bye.

TR asked me what had to happen for us to grab that 2 seed.  So, here it is.

The Vikings can clinch the Two simply with a Minnesota win – we win, we’re in.

If Minnesota loses then we need to have Carolina lose OR the Saints to win.

In other words, for us to miss out on the #2 seed, we need to lose, the Saints need to lose and the Panthers need to win.

TR asked me what the chances were that we get that #2 seed – so we ran the data:

Going over to 538’s Week 17 Predictions where they have each games listed by the 538 ELO point spread.

The three games we’re interested in are booked in the following manner:

Minnesota -12 over Chicago – 85%
New Orleans -7 over Tampa Bay – 73%
Atlanta -3 over Carolina – 61%

Knowing this, combined with the work we did last post in determining free throw shooting, we simply multiply through the combination that knocks Minnesota out.  That is a Minnesota loss, a Saints loss and an Atlanta loss:

.15*.27*.39 = .015795 or .016 or 1.6%.

Minnesota has a 98.4% chance of grabbing the #2 seed this week.

One and One vs. Two

One and One vs. Two

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Perfect timing!

We were out eating dinner tonight and we were discussing ACC basketball.  I was out numbered; my wife and TR are Duke fans while I’m a Carolina fan – daughter is a Tarheel but she was chillin’ with some friends.

Anyway, the conversation eventually landed on free throws and the difference between the One and One vs. the Two Shot Foul.

My question to TR was this, “Which situation results in more points, the One and One or the Two?”

He answered, “It depends on how well you shoot.”

Enter, “We Ran the Data”!

Of course it doesn’t matter how well you shoot, it matters how each condition is built.  When fouled there are two manners in which basketball players are awarded free throws – the One and One and then the Two Shot Foul.  In the first case, a player takes a free throw, and if he makes the first, he is awarded another shot.  In the two shot foul, the players gets two shots either way.

So, which is better and by how much?

Simple probability.

The probability of two events occurring is the product of each thing occurring in the first place. Think coin toss: 50% chance tails, 50% chance heads.  What is the probability of flipping heads twice?  Well, it’s 50% x 50% or .5*.5 = .25 or 25%.

So, free throws and Duke.  Take Grayson Allen, please.  Take Grayson Allen.  Hahaha.

Okay, the young man shots free throws at an 88% clip, so, on any given scenario, what are the odds that he scores 0, 1 or 2 points per foul?

First the One and One.

On the first shot, there are two outcomes – a made shot and then a miss.  The chance that Mr. Allen hits his first free throw is 88%, the chance that he misses is 12%.  Therefore, we know what the chance that he scores 0 points on a one and one is; 12%.  Now onto the remaining two possible outcomes.  So, we know if he misses his first, a 12% chance, he’s done, but what if he hits the first?  Well, he gets another shot.  He now has another 88% chance of hitting the second.  So, knowing he hit the first shot, he’s in a situation where he has an 88% chance of scoring TWO points from the foul and a 12% of scoring only one.  Using the rule above – the probability of two events occurring we can see that his chance of hitting two is 88% times 88% or .88*.88 = .77 or 77%.  The chance that he hits the first and whiffs the second is the percent chance of making a free throw, 88%, multiplied by the chance of missing a free throw, 12%.  This is 11%.

We have it.

The chance of scoring 0 points is 12%.  This is accomplished by missing the first shot.
The chance of scoring 1 point is 11%.  This is accomplished by making the first shot and then missing the second.
Finally, the chance of scoring 2 points is 77%.  And this is accomplished by making both shots.

A quick check confirms our math; 12% + 11% + 77% = 100%.

Now the Two Shot Foul.

A slight change in the rules.  Independent of the first shot, a player is guaranteed two shots.

Now the numbers change, and we see that scoring 0 points requires a player to miss two shots.  In Grayson’s case, that looks like 12% times 12% or 1%.

To score only 1 point, a player must hit and miss OR miss and hit.  For each, Grayson has a 88% x 12% and a 12% x 88% or an 11% for each case; hit and miss or miss and hit.

To score 2 points he has to make two shots; 88% times 88% = 77%

Adding them up:

0 points = 1%
1 point = 11% + 11% = 22 %
2 points = 77%

Check your math by adding those eventualities up and you get 100%.

Now, the last step.  Knowing that your shooter is an 88% free throw shooter, how many points does he score, on average, if he takes 100 One and Ones vs Two Shots?

Easy:

One and One:

12 trips yield 0 points
11 trips yield 1 point
77 trips yield 2 points

Total points in 100 trips is 165 divided by 100 is 1.65 points per trip.

Two Shot:

1 trip yields 0 points
22 trips yields 1 point
77 trips yield 2 points

Total points in 100 trips is 176 divided by 100 is 1.76 points per trip.

What Is This Place

What Is This Place

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Welcome to ‘We Ran the Data’.

A short history:

I grew up in Minnesota and have remained all things Minnesota in my sports fan-ness.  I bleed Purple, was present at Games 6 and 7 in ’87, wept for joy in 91 – then simply wept in ’98 and then again in ’09.  And then again in ’15.

I hate Dallas for three reasons:

  1. Drew Pearson
  2. Herschel Walker
  3. North Stars

I went to school at The U, for awhile, and remain a Gopher fan.  I follow the Wolves and Wild, but to be honest, they are further down the list on my ‘Passion Register’.

I now live in North Carolina, have a wife and two kids – a girl and a boy.  The girl is awesome, the boy too.  But the girl doesn’t like sports, but boy does the boy!

Up until lately I have been out of touch with the local Twin Cities sport scene having to call my brother back home for all things ‘insider’.  For years he’s tried to get me to listen to sport-talk radio on my PC, but my job is such that I can’t focus on work and the radio at the same time.  Then I started driving a new car.  And it has blue tooth.  And I have a phone, with podcasts.  And THAT, my friends, is a wonderful combination.

And so it was that I discovered The Mackey and Judd show over at ESPN 1500.

Now my son and I listen before school, after school, on the way to soccer, basketball and all places in between.  And we nod in agreement, yell in disagreement and discuss things with the hosts in the background.

And it’s great.

My boy, TR we’ll call him, is into all things Mackey and Judd.  The Pecking order, the ‘Write this Down’, the Yule Log, the Stuff and the ‘Questions’.  And he is now discussing it using a degree of analytical thought that he hadn’t shown me in the past.

Now, I am, in part, a data analyst at work.  A modest one, but I do dig into numbers, make forecasts, analyze trends and use tools that employ some fun statistical background stuff.  I majored in math.  So this is right up my alley.

So, this.

If I can, I’d like to take 12 year-old TR down the road of statistics, using a subject we both love and try to get him to expand on math, the tools, the conversation, the debate and the whole ‘make a case grounded in data and then defend it’ as young as I can.  I’ll try to use common tools; a calculator and spreadsheets.  Then move into more uncommon tools; Power BI, R and Minitab.  We’ll see, we might close this deal in 6 months.  Or we might create a lifetime of enjoyment making our case that our guy should be the guy and that your guy is a splash in the pan.

We’ll see.