Long time between posts – lots of life going on, sorry man.  TR and I will do better next time out.

So, as mentioned earlier in the life of WRTD, TR and I listen to Mackey and Judd.  A ton!  But, one, we do it via podcast and two, we don’t do it 4-hours a day, so we are very often behind.  Anxious to catch up and get to the Wolves and Wild exits plus speculate on the draft, we skipped a few days and sure enough, Wolves vent line/ranting to our hearts content.  Good stuff.

Mixed in all the Wolves talk in between Wiggins and Thibodeau, Butler and KAT, is a favorite theme of Mackey’s.  Namely, 3pt shooting.  More specifically, the volume of the 3-pointer during the course of a game and the evolution of the NBA game towards 3’s.

Interesting stuff, but is it true?  Let’s check.

So, if I’m correct, the question is this:  “Is it better to take more 3-point shots or more 2-point shots in the course of an NBA game?”

If I’m reading Mackey’s position it’s this, “The NBA has evolved into a more efficient scoring game.  More 3-point shots results in a 3-point scoring differential that is really hard to overcome.  In fact, in order to overcome that deficit, you have to be really good at everything else; rebounding, turnovers and defense.”

Is Mackey right?

I went to www.nba.com for the stats, and while they’re awesome, they’re hard to download.  So I went to www.basketball-reference.com instead.  A great site.  There I got the data for the 2018 season and specifically focused on the ‘per 100 possession’ stats; opponents and then team.  Because we recently lost to the Rockets, and because they are an extreme example of the new trend, I used them.

As it turns out, not only are the Rockets an extreme example, they are THE extreme example.  Of the 30 teams in the NBA, the Rockets took the most 3-point shots of any team; 43.2 per 100 possessions.  The next closest were the Warriors at 35.8.  The Timberwolves, by the way, were dead last at 23.3.  When loooking at 2-point shots per 100, the Rockets came in at 42.8.  The Puppies?  65.9.

So, breaking it down, it looks like this:

So, much closer than I thought.  And, we forgot one thing; all shots are not created equal.  While hitting beyond the line gets you three points, it’s harder to hit that shot.  A 2-point shot has a different percentage than a 3-point shot.  Let’s fix that.

Wow.  Even closer.

There’s no question that Houston takes more 3-point attempts than the Timberwolves.  But we compensate that by taking way more shots with a higher chance of hitting.  In the end, what we see is that the Rockets take more low percentage, albeit higher scoring, shots than the Wolves but we take more shots that have a better shot of scoring.

So why does Houston win so many games?

Maybe they play better defense.  Rebound better or take more free throws?  Great questions.